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SEO > WALT™ search engine optimisation - Likely, Best and Worst case (LBW)

Likely Best and Worst Case (LBW) Scenarios

Our likely case is based on an estimate which most closely matches our previous experience. Although it errs slightly on the side of caution, its assumptions are based on existing knowledge of related websites, and a realistic estimate of how we expect a new project to perform.

Worst case scenario. This is based on the lowest values for each variable, assuming the project goes ahead and is built according to our usual structure. In our experience to date, we have never yet completed and promoted a website which has achieved anything less than the worst case scenario.

Our best case scenario makes assumptions based on every variable performing at the best possible level. Although there may be small differences in individual variables between the best and worst cases, as all the variables are run through the model, the difference between the best and the worst case scenario is often a factor of up to 10. Although we set the best case scenario as a situation which could develop if everything goes according to plan, this tool can also be used as a method of aborting some projects which we do not think are going to be financially viable. For example, there have been proposals which we have run through our LBW model, where we have come up with a best case scenario for revenue to the site owner of less than £10,000 per year. Although there is always the risk that we may subsequently be proved to have got our figures wrong, we would rather not take the risk of working with projects which are likely to cause disappointment and lead to heavy expenditure commitments with a low chance of return.

Typically, our sites will produce results somewhere between the best and the likely case scenario.

Probable Future Earnings (PFE)

Our LBW modelling produces our estimate of the probable future earnings for a project, based on multiplying each of the outcomes on the LBW model by their probability of happening. Although this will vary considerably from one project to another, this is typically based around giving the worst case scenario a 30% chance of happening, the likely case scenario a 40% chance, and the best case scenario a mere 10% chance of occurring. We also include a 20% probability of the site not generating any revenue at all, in order to make the model as balanced as possible.